Sometimes on our adventures, either in the wild or the workplace, the map we’d been following becomes useless.
Not necessarily a feeling of being lost... more just facing something new, without a clear direction.
That’s when it helps to have something simple, solid, and close at hand.
The short story that follows: We made it up🦄
The tools inside it: Very real⚡️
One evening, a traveler found herself deep in the woods, fog rolled in thick as soup, the trail she’d been following the past 2 hours was seemingly off the planned route, with daylight disappearing fast. Map was useless. GPS, dead. Night fell quickly. No stars. No moon. Just silence.
She panicked, then froze. Should she keep walking? Wait for help? What if she was going in circles? What if she wasn’t even lost… just alone?
Eventually, she reached for three small tools she always kept tucked in her pocket. She knew that when these 3 specific pieces are fitted together, they can help unlock clarity at any level… almost on demand.
it wasn’t much really, just 3 things…
The Bet
The Blade
The Bearings
🎲 The Bet (Pascal’s Wager)
She didn’t know what would happen next. But she knew one thing: when you’re stuck, you’re always making a bet… on meaning or meaninglessness.
She leaned toward meaning. The cost of hope was low. The cost of despair would risk everything.
So she kept moving. Not because she was sure, but because there might still be someone out there. Or something worth walking toward.
🗡️ The Blade (Occam’s Razor)
Next, she stopped spinning stories, recalling that the simplest explanation is usually the most true. She cut through the noise. No bears. No ghosts. No metaphysical punishment.
Just cold. Just fog. Just a trail that was there… and would be again.
🗺️ The Bearings (Bayesian Probability)
She saw a shape in the canyon bend she recognized… just enough to place one more marker on the mental map.
Not much, but it nudged her orientation and gave her a small, steady hit of confidence.
Time to stop guessing and start updating.
🛠 Why This Belongs in Our Toolkit
We all hit moments like that. when a map won’t help. When it feels like meaning is slipping through our fingers. When logic alone doesn’t soothe, and vibes won’t carry the load.
That’s where this triangle comes in:
🔺 Pascal’s Wager (understand why it matters)
🔺 Occam’s Razor (cut the noise)
🔺 Bayesian Probability (update your data as you go)
This isn’t a belief system. It’s a practical way to sync back up with reason and logic when the fog thickens, without losing your footing.
🧪 Flow Experiment: Triangle Check
This week, notice one moment where the ground gets shaky.
Could be:
A hard conversation
A tough decision
A sudden question like, what’s the point of all this anyway?
Then try this:
Pause the drift. Even standing still is a wager. Better to place it with intention than by accident. What do I actually want? and are my actions aligned with my intentions?
Cut through the noise. What story am I telling that I can cut in half right now?
Update your bearings. What small clue could shift the odds or reveal the next move?
That’s it.
The triangle doesn’t answer the Big Questions.
It just gives us a better way to walk with them.
Sourcing & Influence: This framework draws inspiration from open-source contributions on culture building—specifically, Jamie Wheal’s Recapture the Rapture (2021), which explores meaning-making in volatile times. We’re grateful to those helping reweave the tools of logic, myth, and applied philosophy for the modern world.
🧭 Compass Club
We explore tools like this every month inside Compass Club. Live calls, shared experiments, and the kind of clarity that only shows up when people get real.
Seats are limited. But if you’re the kind of person who walks into the fog on purpose…
…we’ve been saving you a spot.
Reply or reach out if you’d like the details.
P.S. What’s the ELEMENTS Toolkit?
The ELEMENTS Toolkit is a growing library of open-source tools for navigating both adventure and responsibility—designed for real-world complexity, not just theory.
Created through our consulting work at ELEMENTS Advisory and tested by Compass Club, each tool helps you explore, balance, and flow through the unknown. Whether you’re leading others or simply trying to stay grounded in your own path.
More tools drop soon. Stay tuned.
